Inside the 2025 Global Payments Report: Data, Disruption, and What’s Next

TL;DR:

The 2025 McKinsey Global Payments Report examines a pivotal transition in the financial world as universal systems give way to a fragmented mosaic of regional and digital rails. This analysis identifies artificial intelligence, stablecoins, and geopolitical shifts as the primary forces disrupting traditional revenue models and infrastructure. While global transaction volumes remain massive, the industry faces a future defined by programmable money and autonomous AI agents that negotiate commerce on behalf of humans. To remain competitive, financial institutions must prioritize interoperability and brand trust within a decentralized landscape. The report ultimately provides a strategic roadmap for stakeholders to navigate regulatory divergence and the decline of traditional cash and card dominance.

Global Payments Market Overview (2024-2025)

The payments industry remains the most valuable subsector in financial services, characterized by massive value flows and high returns.

• Total Revenue: $2.5 trillion.

• Total Value Flows: $2.0 quadrillion.

• Total Transactions: 3.6 trillion worldwide.

• Average Return on Equity (ROE): 18.9% in 2024 (with some individual players exceeding 100%).

• Revenue Growth (2024): 4%, a significant deceleration from the 12% growth seen in 2023.

• Historical Growth (2019–2024): Global revenue increased by an average of 7% annually.

• Interest Income Contribution: Made up 46% of total revenues in 2024, supported by higher interest rates.

Regional Performance and Revenue Mix (2024)

Growth and revenue composition vary significantly by geography, reflecting local economic conditions and consumer behaviors.

Region	2024 Revenue Growth	Key Revenue Drivers/Characteristics
Latin America	11%	Driven by consumer credit cards (32% of total revenues) and installment use.
EMEA	8%	Diversified mix: 20% from commercial account NII (trade/treasury) and 20% from consumer NII (high savings base).
North America	5%	Leans toward consumer payments, primarily credit cards and loyalty programs.
Asia–Pacific (APAC)	-1% (Shrinkage)	Tilts toward commercial: 25% of revenues come from commercial account net interest income (NII).

Payment Methods and Digital Asset Adoption

The shift away from cash toward digital and account-to-account (A2A) rails continues globally.

• Cash Usage: Now accounts for 46% of worldwide payments, a decline from 50% in 2023.

• Digital Wallets: Currently represent approximately 30% of global point-of-sale volume, led by markets like India, Brazil, and Nigeria.

• Stablecoin Transaction Volume: Daily volumes are approximately $30 billion; while significant, this is a small fraction of the trillions transacted daily in traditional finance.

• Stablecoin Issuance: Has doubled since early 2024.

Artificial Intelligence in Commerce

AI is beginning to influence consumer behavior and transaction processing, though adoption is still in early stages.

• Consumer AI Adoption: 10% of consumers use AI to initiate their online shopping journeys.

• Purchase Delegation: 20% of consumers report being comfortable asking an AI agent to make a purchase on their behalf.

Future Projections (Through 2029)

The report outlines a transition to a new economic era with more moderate growth expectations.

• Total Market Size (2029): Projected to reach $3.0 trillion.

• Annual Revenue Growth Forecast: Expected to continue at 4% annually, with a potential range between 3% (global disruption) and 6% (accelerated productivity).

• Net Interest Income (NII) Growth: Projected to slow to 2% per year as interest rates peak and decline.

• Data Coverage: These insights are derived from McKinsey’s Global Payments Map, covering 50 countries and over two dozen payment methods, accounting for 95% of global GDP.

Citation

This summary is based on the Global Payments Report 2025, published by McKinsey & Company in 2025. The report analyzes the evolving global payments ecosystem amid increasing fragmentation of payment rails and the growing influence of artificial intelligence, stablecoins, and geopolitical shifts. It examines global transaction volumes, changing revenue models, the rise of programmable money and AI-driven commerce, and the declining dominance of traditional cash and card-based systems. © 2025 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved. Source: Global Payments Report 2025 (McKinsey)